How bad could monkeypox get in the Bay Area? Experts weigh trajectories

More than two months after the first case was detected in the United States, an Outbreak of monkeypox virus is continuing to spread quickly Nationwide and in the Bay Area, Mostly among gay and bisexual men, and is showing no signs of slowing down.

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New cases could continue to rise at a faster pace for weeks, if not longer, and eradicating the disease altogether may prove difficult, infectious disease experts and local health officials say, although the exact trajectory is hard to predict. How quickly high-risk people can get vaccinated in large numbers — as well as how much behavioral changes can mitigate transmission in communities where it’s spreading the most — will shape how well and how fast the Outbreak can be wrested under control.

A limited supply of monkeypox vaccine has fueled concerns that the disease could spread further in the LGBTQ community and into the wider population, although that hasn’t happened yet.

“Judging by the curve of the outbreak, we’re definitely on the increasing phase,” said Dr. Bela Matyas, public health officer for Solano County. “I anticipate we’ll continue to see this will rise for a while longer because I don’t see evidence of cresting yet.”


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